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Funds & Trackers

Comparing portfolios is a category error

Another person return tells you nothing useful, because you cannot see their horizon, their risk, their contributions or their losses.

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Everything below about comparing your portfolio with others comes from what actually happens rather than from what is supposed to.

What holds up in practice

  • Reported returns are almost never adjusted for risk, contributions or timing.
  • What people report is selected, not representative.
  • The only meaningful benchmark is your own plan.

What is missing from the comparison

A stated return excludes the risk taken to get it, the size of the position, the contributions made and the horizon it applies to. A high return achieved with a concentrated bet is a different event from the same return from a diversified holding.

Without the risk, the number is uninterpretable, and the risk is the part nobody mentions. This applies equally to friends, colleagues and anonymous accounts online.

Reporting is selected

People describe their good positions more often and more precisely than their bad ones, and this happens without any intent to mislead. Aggregated across a group, that selection produces a picture of returns that nobody actually achieved. Online, the selection is stronger still, because posts about losses attract less attention and are made less often.

On an ordinary week, the comparison group you can observe is therefore systematically better than the real one.

Different problems, different answers

Someone with a shorter horizon, other guaranteed income, different tax rules or a different job security is solving a different problem. A portfolio that suits them can be entirely wrong for you even if both are competently constructed. Since these differences are invisible, comparison silently assumes they do not exist.

Tax wrappers alone differ enough between countries to make cross-border comparisons close to meaningless.

What comparison does to behaviour

Feeling behind produces a specific and predictable response: more risk, more activity and a shorter effective horizon. That response tends to arrive after a period of strong returns in whatever is being compared against, which is the least favourable moment to adopt it. The mechanism is the same as performance chasing, arriving through a social channel rather than a performance table.

Recognising it as social pressure rather than analysis is most of the defence.

The benchmark that means something

Your plan states a contribution, an allocation and a horizon, and those are things you can be measured against. Did you contribute what you intended, hold what you intended, and pay what you expected to pay? Those questions have answers and the answers are actionable, which is more than any comparison offers.

A market index is a reasonable secondary reference over long periods, but only against a portfolio designed to track it.

If that does not fit your week, it is not a failure of willpower.

Managing the exposure

If particular conversations or feeds reliably make you want to change your holdings, that is a cost of consuming them. Reducing that exposure is easier and more effective than trying to be immune to it. Where you do discuss investing, discussing habits rather than holdings avoids most of the effect.

In practice, nobody has ever improved a portfolio by learning what a colleague did last year.

The takeaway

The only portfolio you can see completely is your own. Benchmark it against your plan.

Pick the one that costs you least, and let the rest wait.

Questions readers ask

A friend did much better than me last year. Should I change something?

Not on that basis. Without knowing their risk, contributions and horizon, the comparison has no content, and one year is noise regardless.

Should I benchmark against an index at all?

Over long periods, against an index that matches what you actually hold, it is a reasonable sanity check. Over short periods it mostly measures market conditions.

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Joachim Brandt
Funds writer, The Investment Habit

Joachim writes about index funds, trackers and reading a fact sheet without being sold to.

Also by Joachim Brandt